Restocking Nears Completion, Iron Ore Prices in the Doldrums [SMM Brief Review]

DCE iron ore futures saw intense trading today, falling in the morning session before moving sideways in the afternoon. The most-traded contract I2605 closed at 791.5 yuan/mt, up 0.06% from the previous trading day. Spot prices fell 2-5 yuan. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering, while steel mills purchased as needed with cautious inquiries, resulting in an overall subdued trading atmosphere.
SMM statistics showed that the total iron ore inventory across 35 ports nationwide climbed to 153 million mt, up 2.77 million mt WoW. Meanwhile, the daily average port pick-up volume reached 2.43 million mt, rising slightly by 18,000 mt WoW. Supply and demand fundamentals, the port arrivals continued to increase slightly this week, driven by the lagged impact of the previous rebound in shipments. Demand side, steel mills' restocking enthusiasm improved significantly, particularly the short-term demand for iron ore concentrates strengthened, effectively supporting a mild rise in port pick-up volume. However, due to the coverage of supply increments, overall port inventory maintained a buildup trend.
Looking ahead to next week, as previously shipped resources gradually transition from sea transit to port arrivals, supply-side increments are expected to remain clear. Demand side, as steel mills' phased restocking nears completion, the subsequent procurement pace is projected to slow down gradually, putting the port pick-up volume under pressure to retreat from highs in the short term. Overall, with port arrivals continuing to rebound and demand marginally weakening, the accumulation trend in port iron ore inventory is unlikely to reverse. The market's supply-demand structure will face further pressure, and iron ore prices are expected to continue moving sideways in the near term.